What now for Tory and Labour moderates?

It's happened.  The principle policies announced at the Tory conference were right wing, despite the rhetoric from Theresa May about "working class people". Brexit and various anti-foreigner initiatives added to grammar schools. The party's right-wing MPs were euphoric.  The Troies have rebranded as UKIP.  Even representatives of UKIP are saying so!

But where does thst leave the moderate centre-right MPs and members?  Often called 'Cameroons', the FT reported today that they have "gone to ground".

Much like the moderate centre-left MPs and members of the Labour party.  Outcasts.

It has to be remembered that both parties are in fact coalitions.  The Tories between right and moderate centre-right.  Labour between left and moderate centre-left.  In the last few general elections, it has been the party best dominated by these moderates that have won - Labour led by Tony Blair and Tories led by David Cameron.

There's a good reason for this. British voters regard themselves as principally centrist, plus slightly more centre right than centre left. The current more extreme positions of the Tories and Labour have little natural popular support.  General elections are won by appealing to the centre:

Representative picture, based on ComRes data late 2014

Back in July, Andrea Leadsom was still in contention for the Tory leadership.  News broke in the Observer that should the two parties polarise, then senior MPs were thinking of forming a new centrist party.  That polarisation has happened, under Corbyn in Labour, and under May rather than Leadsom in the Tories:

It is now time for this idea to be put into action.  Like this:

The last time there was a major spin-out of moderate MPs was the formation of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). It wasn't long before the SDP almost disappeared, and to survive had to merge with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats. There were two key factors:

• The SDP did not appeal much to the centre-right
• The SDP was not large enough to take on the two main parties . The LibDems still struggle.

A new centrist party formed by the combination of centre-right and centre-left would be different:

• It would appeal to both centre-right and centre-left voters, especially swing voters
• It could be far larger than the SDP.  Large enough to take on what remains of the Labour and Tory parties

Forming a new party won't be easy. It needs money, bravery and a strong leader.  Fortunately there are strong leadership candidates from the moderate wings of both parties who could take on the challenge.

It take weeks to register a new party. The Just Political Party has already been registered with centrist objectives and initial constitution. It has been branded "Great Aspirations. Great Britian" to appeal to the aspirations of voters across the country.

The JustPP also backs Remain for UK's membership of the EU, given that Brexit looked and still looks as it will severely damage the UK economy.  Something we cannot afford and Leave voters wouldn't expect.  The Chancellor himself said over the weekend that "the British people did not vote on June 23rd to become poorer, or less secure."

The JustPP can therefore be used by MPs as the political force in Westminster to stop Brexit before the Article 50 button is pressed, if the picture continues to look that it will make us poorer..  It just needs the will to make the new party a success.

Further details of the Just Political Party here. 

Who's up for the new party?

Who's saying "Brexit means trashing the economy"?

USD:GBP exchange rate through 2016

As a eurosceptic, it would be great if there were to be a new arrangement for the UK with the EU that made sense both politically and economically. This could be inside or outside the EU. But the new arrangement must achieve both objectives.

We had a massive devaluation in sterling against major currencies such as the US dollar and Euro immediately after the surprise Brexit vote in June. There was a further slide after Brexit announcements at the Tory conference.  Hardly a ringing endorsement of the UK economy by the professionals. Nor had such a hefty devaluation been suggested as a serious answer to the UK's economic issues.

Looking at the transition issues of Brexit and the likely long-term result, I would agree with what the currency market seems to be saying. "Brexit means trashing the economy."

Unless the Government can quickly pull a rabbit out of the hat, the country needs to think again. Businesses should be planning for "No Brexit" as much as any other shade.

What should be painted on the Brexit Battle Bus?

Befroe the EU referendum we had the VoteLeave battle bus saying let's fund the NHS with £350m a week instead of sending it to the EU.

We now need a Brexit Battle Bus that proudly proclaims what Brexit will actually mean in monetary terms, before the Article 50 button is pressed.  There's two sides and a roof, so the opportunity for three major messages. The rear can also be used for something short and punchy.

I hope that the figures will be good, in which case it will help to persade the 48% who voted Remain to believe that Brexit is a good idea, and heal this split in the population.  But I fear the figures will be bad, in which case will the Government still have public opinion on their side to press the Article 50 button?. Either way the public needs to know, loud and clear.

The Autumn Statement in November will give us some numbers.  One will be the forecast of total borrowings by comparison to the final year in the spring Budget.  Higher or lower?

The £350m was a gross number, not net. The second side can show what will actually happen to the £350m, such as paying for ex-pats' health cover in Spain.  Still a surplus?

That leaves us two spaces.  Any suggestions?

How will Tory moderates join with Labour moderates? When?

In July there was talk of disaffected moderates in the Labour party teaming up with counterparts in  the Tories.  The article on the right was published in the Observer

In September, the Labour conference showed how deep the divisions have become in the party after the re-election of Jeremy Corbyn.  Moderate Labour MPs are concerned the party will never return to power in Westminster. On a personal level, many fear they will be de-selected. The pressure for the party to split is immense.  How can this pressure be released?

Pressures in the Tories are somewhat different, but there is a distinct gulf between moderates and the right. Theresa May is pandering more to the right than David Cameron on topics such as grammar schools. And of course Brexit. Many Tory MPs disagree.  Will we see pressure to split in the forthcoming Tory conference?

WHAT COULD HAPPEN?

The key issue is that few MPs would be prepared to move to a new moderate party unless it was electable. That requires size. That would require the sort of re-alignment where the moderates on the left join with the moderates on the right, under the common banner of wishing to stay in the EU:

WHEN WILL THIS HAPPEN?

Maybe steps are already being taken. But a political party takes some weeks to register. The Just Political Party is already registered as a centrist / centre-right party and ready to go. So the moderates can join together anytime. Now?

Will Brexit be Endo or Exo?

We all know that when wood burns, it gives off energy. We also know that it only does this if we supply some energy first, using some form of lighter. This is represented by the diagram on the right. The line rises as we add the lighter's energy, and then we lose it in heat to fall to a lower energy state. This is called an exothermic reaction, abbreviated EXO.

An endothermic reaction on the left is similar, in that energy has to be added to make the change take place,. But the products absorb energy and end up at a higher energy level. Baking a loaf or cooking an egg are two examples of ENDO.


HOW IS THAT RELEVANT TO BREXIT?

Brexit is similar:

1. Energy needs to be invested to make the transition. We need to re-negotiate the UK's position with the EU and the rest of the world, change the UK's laws, and businesses need to change their business practices.  The effort and cost for that transition is the hump on the graphs.
2. The end-result can either be 

• To reach a higher plane (ENDO), having gained from the transition, or 
• To fall to a lower plane (EXO), having lost from the transition. 

HOW MUCH ENERGY NEEDS TO BE INVESTED?

People like Douglas Carswell in UKIP, who has long advocated leaving the EU, suggest it is easy to make the transition. In which case the investment would be relatively modest, represented by a small hump on the graph.

But increasingly it appears that the transition will require a massive amount of effort, over a significant period of time:

•  All the UK Acts and Statutory Instruments need to be reviewed and updated, a monumental task. 
• If Brexit is to involve moving to World Trade Organisation rules, then all the quantities allowed for the EU will need to be allocated between the UK and the rest of the EU for each relevant product.
• There's much else besides, not just in Govenement circles but also in every business affected.

It could take years and involve masses of people. People who can't be doing anything else constructive, so that loss is an additional hidden or "opportunity cost". Indeed, is there enough skilled people available?  A lack of skills risks a mess, that would also carry a cost to everyone affected.


IS THAT INVESTMENT WORTHWHILE?

Let's nonetheless assume that the investment is feasible in reasonable timescales.

Clearly this effort and cost will only be justified if the transition is an ENDO change, moving to a higher plane. Not only that, but it would need to be to a significantly higher plane, taking into account pros and cons.  The bigger the transition investment, the higher that plane will need to be to justify that investment.

An EXO change, falling to a lower level, is clearly ridiculous.


IS BREXIT ENDO OR EXO?

The Government needs to decide what form of Brexit it will aim for in negotiations with the EU. For example, will it be a 'Hard' (or 'Clean') Brexit  that involves leaving the Single Market and Customs Union? ,

We can then consider a number of aspects as to whether they are ENDO or EXO, and how big the rise or fall is relative to the transition investment for that aspect. Aspects include:

1. Economy, including affects on the City and inward investment,
2. Immigration/Emigration (versus affect on Brits living/working/travelling in EU)
3. External borders, especially between Eire and Northern Ireland 
4. Control of legislation (versus lack of infleunce in Europe)

For each aspect, a graph like those above can be created showing the investment required, and how big is the net projected ENDO or EXO affect.  A summary graph can then be created as the sum of the individual aspects.

Certainly it is clear that the transition investment is only worthwhile if the preferred form of Brexit is strongly ENDO overall, with a reasonable and feasible transition investment.

The overall picture then needs to be debated in Parliament, covering both the end-result and the transition. Assuming the agreed form of Brexit is sensible, which was not part of the first referendum, there should then be a second referendum on the proposal before the Article 50 button is pressed.

The first referendum result was a wish to leave the EU. But surely the British people would not expect this to happen at all costs?

Cake Brexit or Hard Brexit?

As written to the Financial Times today in response to their headline article:

Sir

Your lead article "City fears Number 10 is shifting towards a hard exit from EU" (26
September) concludes with "There has to be a balance between the rational and the
political. It can't just be politics".

Indeed. There seems to be very little in terms of realism and pragmatism.

After all the British public were sold a Cake Brexit - having your cake and eating it -
and voted accordingly. But a Cake Brexit is clearly not on the cards. Only a Hard or
Soft Brexit is being discussed, with many saying a Soft Brexit is not feasible. Hence
your headline.

The Labour party have decided not to debate Brexit at their party conference.
It seems Theresa May is also doing all she can to suppress public debate.

If we're not careful we'll drift into a Hard Brexit for which the public didn't actually
vote.  What will happen when the public cottons on? Brexit riots? Maybe not, but
the government will lose support if they are not open and honest about what Brexit
will mean. 

If it does make sense, we can go ahead with enthusiasm. But if the
proposed form of Brexit doesn't make sense, people need a final chance to stop it
before the Article 50 button is pressed.

Could it happen? Should it happen?

WHAT COULD HAPPEN?

The Labour party is a coalition between the left-wing Momentum group and the centre-left Progress.  The tensions between them have become unbearable after the re-election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader .

The Conservatives is similarly a coalition between the right and the centre-right. The centre-right are against Brexit, grammar schools and other right-wing policies that were not in the 2015 Conservative manifesto. Bitter divisions are expected to surface at the Tory conference shortly.

So the following could happen to the main national parties, creating a new moderate centrist party with sufficient backing to form a government:

WHY COULD THIS HAPPEN?

• Tory moderates on the centre right no longer want to be in coalition with the right, but do not want to split off into obscurity.  A new coalition is required.  The 2010 coalition showed in principle that a centre-right Conservative party could govern in coalition with the centre-left, in the form of the LibDems  
• But a merger between centre-right Tories and LibDems is not on the cards.
• The Labour party needs to split into two, as described above. The moderates in the centre-left have a choice of joining the LibDems or the Tories. But many wouldn't want to do either. Better to join a new moderate centrist party with sufficient size to form a government. 
• In terms of electability, the electorate regard themselves primarily as moderates in the centre. A new moderate centrist party would therefore have policies that would appeal directly to the majority of the electorate.  This graph is based on data from a ComRes survey in late 2014, but also reflects other studies:

WHY SHOULD THIS HAPPEN?

It is an odd aspect of UK politics that although the vast majority of voters are moderates in the centre or centre-right, there is no dedicated centre-right party.  "New Labour" and Cameron's Tories filled that void.

It is about time a new party was in place to better serve the electorate.  All too often voters have had to vote AGAINST the party they liked least.  This shouldn't be necessary.  You should be able to vote FOR a party that represents your values and wishes.

HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN? 

Starting a new party under the 'First Past the Post' system is not a trivial matter.

The Social Democrats were formed by four prominent Labour MPs.  But the party didn't have a sufficient breadth of support. It had to merge with the Liberal Democrats that broadly occupied the same political space.

UKIP took off when Conservative MP Douglas Carswell had sufficient personal support to be re-elected for his new party.  Mark Reckless then tried the same trick in Rochester, but only just beat a new Tory candidate in the by-election. No other Tory MP was brave enough to follow suit. Quite right.  Reckless lost the subsequent general election to the same Tory candidate.

Far better for the new party to start under four or more key MPs who believe they can be re-elected in by-elections.


WHEN COULD THIS HAPPEN?

The new constituency boundaries for 2018, when MP numbers will reduce from 650 to 600, will potentially provide the opportunity. Some moderate MPs whose constituency is changing may well find themselves not selected by the Labour or Tory parties.  They will need a new party home.

But before then there is the distinct possibility of a general election  in 2017.  Theresa May's majority is slender, and it may be too tempting to use Labour's weakness go for a larger majority. That majority needs to be stopped.  There needs to be moderate challengers.  

Indeed a series of by-elections by those opposed to new Tory policy, including those opposed to Brexit, could make a general election a necessity if enough seats are taken from the Tories to eliminate their majority.

All is possible.

BUT WHO WILL MAKE THIS HAPPEN?

This is not a theoretical idea.  This was apparently being floated in the tearooms of Westminster in July when this article was published in the Observer: 

Now moderate Labour and Conservative MPs need to be talking urgently about forming a new party that better represents their views, and those of most voters.

Perhaps you would like to suggest by commenting below who you think could lead the formation  of this new party?

And who would fund it? Lots of small donations? Or who might provide significant funds? Both presumably.

Let's make it happen!