Yesterday I posted a note of how I see there being four main choices in this referendum vote, two for Remain and two for Leave. But how would the four types of voters describe themselves? I suggest:
- Europhile: Wants to remain in EU. Full stop. Will vote Remain
- Eurosceptic: Tempted to Leave, but can see more advantages of Remain over leaving. At least for now. Asking government to keep Leave under review for the future, but will vote Remain this June
- Europhobe: Wants to Leave the EU at virtually any cost. Keen to control borders and immigration, even if that means no new free trade deal with EU/EEA. Will accept significant short term economic pain if necessary, probably because it won't affect them much, only others.
- Europhobe-Lite: Will vote to Leave the EU, but realises free trade in the Common Market must continue with EU after Brexit, probably by becoming a member of European Economic Area (EEA) like Norway. A key membership condition is virtually certain to be continuation of Free Movement of People, at least of workers. So immigration would be barely affected (unless someone can convince me to the contrary). New arrangement may last for years, as EU/EEA would have little or no reason to re-negotiate.
THE ISSUE FOR EUROPHOBES - A RED HERRING
Further details on "The Immigration Question" here,
If Europhobes then ignore the immigration factor and just consider other factors, I wonder how many will become Eurosceptics and vote Remain?
Then the vote won't be so close.
[Added 9/6/16] A USEFUL GRAPHIC ON BREXIT OPTIONS
With credit to Square One Law