Wednesday, 8 June 2016

#EUref - What Type of "Euro-" Are You?

It's not every day I wake up dreaming of Deborah Meaden, pub lease small print, and the categories of EU referendum voters.  But today's the day!

Yesterday I posted a note of how I see there being four main choices in this referendum vote, two for Remain and two for Leave. But how would the four types of voters describe themselves?  I suggest:
  1. Europhile: Wants to remain in EU. Full stop.  Will vote Remain
  2. Eurosceptic: Tempted to Leave, but can see more advantages of Remain over leaving. At least for now. Asking government to keep Leave under review for the future, but will vote Remain this June
  3. Europhobe: Wants to Leave the EU at virtually any cost. Keen to control borders and immigration, even if that means no new free trade deal with EU/EEA. Will accept significant short term economic pain if necessary, probably because it won't affect them much, only others.
  4. Europhobe-Lite:  Will vote to Leave the EU, but realises free trade in the Common Market must continue with EU after Brexit, probably by becoming a member of European Economic Area (EEA) like Norway.  A key membership condition is virtually certain to be continuation of Free Movement of People, at least of workers.  So immigration would be barely affected (unless someone can convince me to the contrary). New arrangement may last for years, as EU/EEA would have little or no reason to re-negotiate.
Which are you?


The issue for Europhobes is that any sensible UK Government after Brexit will have to pursue the Europhobe-Lite route. I can't see any difference to the control of immigration for a very long time yet, if ever. That makes the immigration topic a complete Red Herring, doesn't it?  Further details on "The Immigration Question" here,

If Europhobes then ignore the immigration factor and just consider other factors, I wonder how many will become Eurosceptics and vote Remain?

Then the vote won't be so close.


With credit to Square One Law

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