Friday, 17 June 2016

#EUref.- The Result Will Be 80:20. But Which Way?

For weeks now the opinion polls have suggested that #Remain and #Leave are pretty close. #Remain has been in the lead, but now #Leave are getting ahead.

With less than a week to go,  Does #Leave have the momentum to reach an 80:20 result?

Or will it swing back the other way?  Yes it wll.  I think #Remain will win 80:20.  Here's why:
  1.  Likely Recession if Leave: The uncertainty in business of a #Leave win would likely mean widespread delays in investment, and likely create a recession. Jobs at risk  Voters are not stupid!
  2. The Next Government: The Referendum doubles as a vote against the current Cameron government. Whilst David has said he will stay on to implement Brexit if the vote is Leave,  it's looking more likely that Johnson/Gove would take over. Further right wing than Cameron.  Is that what the centrists and lefties want? I doubt it.
  3. Weight of Knowledgeable Opinion: Johnson, Gove and their crew are vastly outnumbered by the ranks of senior, influential politicians from all sides who are campaigning for #Remain. That weight of opinion must count for #Remain
  4. Immigration Control: Anyone wanting to Leave principally for immigration control will find it interesting that #Immigration - Aren't the Leave Camp selling us The Emperor's New Clothes?
  5. "The Sun's" U-Turn: The Sun came out last week for #Leave, remarkably early for them. For the reasons above, the Sun will do a U-turn and support #Remain.  The sceptic in me suggests this was the plan all along .  It's just a matter of when.
  6. In the Polling Booth: Ultimately the eurosceptics who might want to Leave will not be prepared to tick the Leave box which sends them into the unknown. Want to leave. Can't Leave.
 Voters all around the UK need to understand these key issues.


  1. 15 minutes before polls close Thursday 23 June:

    OK the Sun is leaving it a bit late, an the mail has also declared for Leave.

    And these 6issues have not been properly covered by the medai, especially that Immigration is a red herring.

    So not 80:20. Over 60% perhaps?

  2. Actually, the analysis above assumed that people would vote logically. That turkeys do not vote for Christmas. That the media would out the lies rather than report and magnify them. I was wrong.

    Lessons learnt. I'll never look at life the same again.