With less than a week to go, Does #Leave have the momentum to reach an 80:20 result?
Or will it swing back the other way? Yes it wll. I think #Remain will win 80:20. Here's why:
- Likely Recession if Leave: The uncertainty in business of a #Leave win would likely mean widespread delays in investment, and likely create a recession. Jobs at risk Voters are not stupid!
- The Next Government: The Referendum doubles as a vote against the current Cameron government. Whilst David has said he will stay on to implement Brexit if the vote is Leave, it's looking more likely that Johnson/Gove would take over. Further right wing than Cameron. Is that what the centrists and lefties want? I doubt it.
- Weight of Knowledgeable Opinion: Johnson, Gove and their crew are vastly outnumbered by the ranks of senior, influential politicians from all sides who are campaigning for #Remain. That weight of opinion must count for #Remain
- Immigration Control: Anyone wanting to Leave principally for immigration control will find it interesting that #Immigration - Aren't the Leave Camp selling us The Emperor's New Clothes?
- "The Sun's" U-Turn: The Sun came out last week for #Leave, remarkably early for them. For the reasons above, the Sun will do a U-turn and support #Remain. The sceptic in me suggests this was the plan all along . It's just a matter of when.
- In the Polling Booth: Ultimately the eurosceptics who might want to Leave will not be prepared to tick the Leave box which sends them into the unknown. Want to leave. Can't Leave.