Thursday, 20 October 2016

Brexit - How Do You Feel?

The athlete crosses the finishing line. The first question they are asked by the TV presenter is "How do you feel?"

Emotions are so important.  Not least when making a purchase.  Let's say you're making an important decision like who is going to rewire your house.  You've got three quotes, and have whittled it down to two.  You may have conflicting advantages.  Or you may be totally confused.  You have to make a decision.  You have to go with your gut feel. Which electrician's offer feels more comfortable?

The same applies to voting.  As you put your cross on the voting paper, you may be confused, or having second thoughts.  But you feel you have to vote. Again, which option feels more comfortable? Or indeed which is less uncomfortable?

On a scale of +2 to -2, as you put your cross on the paper your feelings might be:
  • Ecstatic
  • Comfortable
  • Confused
  • Uncomfortable
  • Dreading
Presumably you wouldn't vote for something you are dreading. But you might vote "uncomfortable" if the other option was worse.   It's how the options compare.

Then it's a matter of why?  It could be fear.  Perhaps fear of the risk of an economic downturn. Or fear of someone taking your job.

Would you feel happier to be "in control"? How about more money for the NHS on which you rely?

Of course you would feel happier.  That's how the Leave Bus captured hearts as well as minds.

That beat "Project Fear".


So how did you feel when you were in the polling booth on Referendum day?  What emotions did you feel?

The polling companies tend to ask questions like "Which was the most important factor?", with choices such as "immigration"  That's about thought, not feelings.

Did any ask questions about how people felt about immigration, control or econimics?  That would provide much better insight into how people are feeling and likely to vote.  (If the polling companies did, please add a comment.)


In any case, how do you feel now?

This posting was prompted by a rather innocuous tweet that Cava in Tesco has gone up 40p, which the author blamed on Brexit.  It was clear that they buy Cava. So how do they feel?  How would you feel?  Poorer I'm sure, and blaming Brexit.  There's now many more food and drink examples.  What was a risk, a fear, before the referendum has become a reality.

The £350m on the bus has already been debunked by Theresa May offering the NHS no more money.  How do Leave voters feel about that? Let down? Angry to have been lied to?  It can only be negative.

Senior EU representatives emphasies again today that they will negotiate hard in the interests of the remaining 27 EU countries.  How confident do you feel that the UK could get a deal at least as good as currently?

So how do you feel now?  If you voted to Leave or to Remain are you more or less comfortable? If you were to vote now, would your vote change?

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