Thursday, 13 October 2016

What will get Theresa May to stop and think about Brexit?

Yesterday (Wednesday) the Prime Minister, Theresa May, remained gung-ho about Brexit.  Now there's a court case running to see if she needs to consult Parliament formally before proceeding.

But what about the Court of Public Opinion?  What in that will get her to stop and think more carefully?

Firstly here's a look at the Referendum result:
"How much of a mandate for Brexit does May actually have?"

This article has had over 2500 reads in little more than 48 hours, in response to a few tweets. Feedback has been positive:  For example, from @247 "An excellent and clear article that all people interested in #Brexit should read especially @TheresaMay_MP and her government"

But the odd thing about the Referendum is that it wasn't decided on the normal basis of "It's the Economy, Stupid".  According to polls, most people who voted to Leave did so on principle, firstly Sovereignty and secondly Immigration.

Now economic matters are dominating the headlines, with the devaluation of sterling already having real practical effects on food prices and even availability.  So the follow-up article is:
"How will Public Opinion change to support or reject Brexit?

The likelihood is that Public Opinion will, start to swing against Brexit.  How far will it need to go before Theresa May realises she hasn't got enough public support for Brexit any longer? 

Not an easy question to answer, as there are ifs about changes in public support and ifs about her reaction to it.  But as we approach the Autumn Statement in November, economic matters in the shops, at the airports and in the forecasts will become clearer.  Might we even see Brexit cancelled?

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