Tuesday, 28 June 2016

Post #EUref - The Future of British Politics

It is just approaching 10pm on Tuesday 28th June 2016. Some of the most momentous few days in British Politics since #VoteLeave won a slender but unwarranted win in the EU Referendum.

As I write, of the major UK-wide parties:


Jeremy Corbyn has just refused to stand down as leader after a substanital majority of the Labour MPs (the Parliamentary Labour Party, PLP) have expressed a vote of no confidence 
  • As a democratic socialist ("Leftie") he wants to lead a democratic socialist Labour Party, which is their official position under clause 4. This is backed by a substantial proportion of the grass-roots party members and supporters, under the "Momentum" banner
  • He is prepared to let go of the centre-left "social democrat" MPs, who he has effectively expelled pending the likelihood of formal deselection in due course
  • Virtually all of these centre-left MPs have backed the Remain position
  • As the party that wins General Elections is the one that best appeals to the centre left and centre right, the Labour Party are very unlikely to ever be elected to govern the country again
  • In Parliamentary terms, the Labour Party is now dead, but will be true to its ideals. Fine.

The Conservative Party is electing a new leader:
  • After David Cameron's resignation as Prime Minister, nominations for new leader are due in by this Thursday
  • That leader will be charged with running the how the UK leaves the EU (although in practice it is highly unlikely to occur)
  • They will also need to heal the rifts between Leave and Remain supporters, although there is mounting pressure to split. As the Conservative grass roots support Leave, that means goodbye to centre-right Remainers

The Liberal Democrats have announced they will continue to campaign for EU Remain.  No doubt some centre-left Labour MPs will be considering joining them. But as they are a centre-left party, with little appeal to the centre-right, centre-right Conservatives are much less likely to join. The Lib Dems will continue as a lesser party unlikely to govern with an outright majority

(4) UKIP 

UKI;P has served its purpose, in getting a EU referendum. In the absence of any lasting role, it will die. As soon as their only MP Douglas Carswell resigns or otherwise leaves, wihtotu any other MP, UKIP lose their "major party" status for the media coverage of future elections.


Is there any other way to resolve these party issues for the MPs who are being effectively expelled from the Labour and Conservative parties? Watch this space!

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